Research-driven
TACTIK LETTER
February 2010
Economic Data
| GDP | INFLATION (1) | |||||||
| Annual % change | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 P | 2010 P | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 P | 2010 P |
| North America | 2.1 | 0.4 | -2.5 | 2.7 |
2.8 | 3.7 | -0.3 | 2.0 |
| United States | 2.1 | 0.4 | -2.5 | 2.7 |
2.9 | 3.8 | -0.3 |
2.0 |
| Canada | 2.7 | 0.5 | -2.5 |
2.5 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 1.5 |
| Western Europe | 2.8 | 2.0 | -4.1 | 1.2 |
2.1 | 4.7 | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Euro Zone | 2.7 | 0.7 | -3.9 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 1.1 |
| France | 2.1 | 0.7 | -2.2 | 1.4 |
1.5 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 1.1 |
| Germany | 2.5 | 1.3 | -5.0 |
1.6 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 0.4 |
0.9 |
| Spain | 3.7 | 1.2 | -3.6 |
-0.4 | 2.8 | 4.1 | -0.3 | 1.2 |
| UK | 3 | 0.7 | -4.7 |
1.4 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Switzerland | 3.3 | 1.6 | -1.6 |
1.1 |
0.7 | 2.4 | -0.4 | 0.6 |
| Eastern Europe | 7 | 4.3 | -5.9 | 2.5 | 8.5 | 10.9 | 7.2 | 6.2 |
| Russia | 8.1 | 5.6 | -8.0 |
3.7 |
11.9 | 13.3 | 9.8 |
7.5 |
| Asia Pacific | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| Japan | 2.4 | -0.7 | -5.4 |
1.4 |
0.0 | 1.4 | -1.3 | -1.0 |
| Australia | 4 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
2.8 |
2.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| China | 13.0 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 9.6 |
4.8 | 5.9 | -0.9 | 2.3 |
| Hong Kong | 6.4 | 2.5 | -3.1 | 4.4 |
2.0 | 4.3 | 0.2 |
2.1 |
| India (2) | 9.0 | 6.4 | 6.5 |
7.5 |
6.4 | 8.2 | 10.0 |
7.2 |
| Latin America | 5.5 | 4.2 | -2.5 |
3.5 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 6.7 |
| Brazil | 5.4 | 5.2 | -0.2 |
5.0 |
4.5 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| World | 3.9 | 2.0 | -1.7 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 2.7 |
Downward or upward forecasts compared to last month
E : estimated
F : forecasts
(1) annual average
(2 ) Fiscal year, April to March
Sources and forecasts: Consensus Forecasts , The Economist , OECD, IMF
Central bank Rates
| Central Bank Rates* | ||||||
| Central Bank rate | Last change |
Date of change | Expected in3 months | Expected in12 months | ||
| United States | Fed Funds rate | 0.25% | -75 bp | 16/12/2008 | 0% / 0.25% | 0.5%/0.75% |
| Canada | Overnight rate | 0.25% | - 25 bp | 21/04/2009 | 0.25% | 1.25%/1.5% |
| Euro zone | Refi rate | 1.00% | - 25 bp | 07/05/2009 | 1% | 1.25%/1.5% |
| UK | Repo rate | 0.50% | - 50 bp | 06/03/2009 | 0.5% | 1.25% |
| Switzerland | SNB Libor rate | 0.25% | -25 bp | 12/03/2009 | 0.25% | 0.5%/0.75% |
| Denmark | 14-day repo rate | 1.05% | - 10 bp | 15/01/2010 | 1.25% | 1.5%/1.75% |
| Norway | Deposit rate | 1.75% | 25 bp | 17/12/2009 | 2% | 3%/3.25% |
| Sweden | Repo rate | 0.25% | -25 bp | 02/07/2009 | 0.25% | 1%/1.25% |
| Japan | Overnight rate | 0.10% | -20 pb | 19/12/2008 | 0%/0.25% | 0%/0.25% |
| Australia | Cash rate | 3.75% | 25 bp | 01/12/2009 | 4%/4.25% | 4.75%/5% |
| New Zealand | Cash rate | 2.5% | -50 bp | 30/04/2009 | 2.50% /2.75% | 4% |
Sources and expectations: Bloomberg, SINOPIA calculations
Expected earnings growth
| % change | 2009 | 2010 |
United States |
5 -25 -24 -33 436 89 -9 |
27 24 28 27 33 172 14 |
Source: SINOPIA calculations with I.B.E.S expectations
F : Forecasts
Budgetary balance
| % change | 2009 P | 2010 P |
United State |
-11.2 -4.8 -6.1 -12.6 -0.7 -7.4 -4.0 |
-10.7 -5.2 -6.7 -13.3 -1.3 -8.2 -3.5 |
Sources: OECD expectations, consensus
Sources: OECD, Bloomberg, Reuters, Consensus Forecasts, IBES, Sinopia. This information is not an offering memorandum and in no way constitutes advice on investments, financial or legal matters, or any other matter.
Sinopia Asset Management - Tactik Letter - Reproduction prohibited – February 2010- data as of 31/01/2010 - allocations as of 09/02/2010. There can be no assurance that the investment objective, including performance, will be achieved. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
